The Unnatural Nature of Statistics
Statistics are unnatural. The human mind is not programmed to think using statistics for its daily tasks, but basis the main calculations on his decisions on plain cause-and-effect relationships.
Calculating probabilities is also unnatural. There are many examples available (like the infamous car and goat paradox) that demonstrate how tricky it is to calculate simple estimates on day to day decisions.
Probability and statistics are also inherently embedded in the collective thinking of our society. A good example of this is the following:
A single mom with two daughters is at home with her youngest daughter, a baby of 2 years, while her eldest daughter, who is 16, is out. The eldest daughter rings her up and says that she has been stranded somewhere, is injured, has no money and needs her mom to come and pick her up. What should the mom do if the choices are: a) to leave the baby in the house alone and drive away to fetch her daughter b) wake up the baby, bring her in the car and drive to fetch the elder daughter.
The obvious choice accepted by society is, of course, option B. What kind of mom would leave her baby alone in the house for whatever reason. It's the choice that makes sense. Until you start calculating the probabilities.
The probability of a car accident at night for the mom that will eventually harm her baby is a lot bigger than anything happening to the baby in her crib while the mom is away. And the social and practical implications of this are really spectacular.
Under these circumstances, it seems that making choices on important and complicated matters requires special handling and calculations that can shed light on the dark corners of probability and statistics.
In Lawptimize we believe that interpreting the statistics is one of the most important elements of the platform and we want to assist you in all levels of your understanding.
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